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The vicious bear market rally during the last half of March this year taught me to approach each day as something new. They make the shorts go insane to the point where they go long, and once they go long the big boys then pound the market down. Inflation is raging, the Fed is not done tightening either through the FFR or by reducing its balance sheet, housing is beginning to come down and stock valuations are still extremely high. Simply put, there is no good reason for this bear market rally - none.
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I am not a professional by any stretch, but the part where you’re talking these guys being the masters of understanding emotions seems to be 100% true. Love what you write & you are a great help to the investing community. This is how they can report billions in trading profits. So it is my opinion, that the powers that be can swing the markets violently in one direction or the other, and profit hugely as you can imagine. If one stayed short during this rally, they are ready to check themselves into a hospital. The 50% retracement is at 4227 and we saw a high this past Friday of 4140. I might add that they ( the manipulators ) are helped by the probability, for the sophisticated traders, that the market is correcting the move from the January high of 4818.62 to the recent July low of 3636.87. That’s when the trap is set and the market is ready to reverse and VERY BIG PROFITS ARE TO BE MADE. They are masters in determining the time when the emotions and mentality of the market is such, that even the most ardent bear is rethinking his position and those who swore that they would undertake some protection, if the market ever rallied, are emotionally unable to do so. So once most traders are stopped out of their short positions, every effort must be made to get them to go long. So incredibly, as we have seen since the recent lows just above 3600 on the SPX, the market violently shoots up on the flimsiest of scenarios, as you pointed out. What better set up can you have than this at the present since all logical arguments would favor a short position and certainly not a net long balance sheet. Therefore, the plan is to swing as many retail traders ( there are millions of them ) and other not so sophisticated institutions, stopped out of their bearish bets and get them to go long. They are in the business ( according to their own statements ) to make money in any way possible. JP Morgan, and roughly 3 hedge funds that can literally push the markets in any direction for 1 to 6 weeks, using the leverage of the futures and derivatives markets. The answer is that there are 3 to 4 big banks, e.g.
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believing the scripted scenario pushed by the TV financial talking heads, and refusing to do what it is suppose to do. It begs the question how and why then is the market seemingly gullible, i.e. Your weekend report hit the nail on the head, as usual. I mention all this so that you know who is emailing you.
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I eventually set up my own IB for 13 years before Jon Corzine criminally collapsed my clearing firm, MF Global. I am now almost 80 and you can imagine quite knowledgeable of how Wall Street operates. I specialized in the futures/derivatives markets which are the largest casinos in the world.
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